The global digital asset market grew by 11% in September, reaching $2.99 trillion, despite the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates and uncertainty surrounding US regulation. According to an October report by Binance Research, one of the factors supporting the market was an inflow of $3.49 billion into Bitcoin spot ETFs. For Armenia, these trends are significant in the context of fintech development, international settlements, and the establishment of a regulated crypto-asset market.
However, the growth of the global market does not automatically mean that Armenia’s economy will benefit. What matters is the type of services local companies can offer, the level of security they provide, and the real-world problems they help solve.
International settlements: Where practical benefits can be found
For companies working with foreign clients, transfer speed, transaction costs, and the predictability of receiving funds are crucial. This applies equally to technology businesses, small companies exporting services, and professionals working with international clients.
In this context, digital assets and blockchain-based infrastructure merit attention as potential tools for cross-border settlements. However, their utility must be evaluated across the entire process—from the initial transfer of funds to their conversion into fiat currency and deposit into a bank account. Factors such as intermediary fees, source-of-funds verification, regulatory requirements, and the risk of value fluctuations can significantly impact the outcome. Therefore, the key question for Armenia is whether these new solutions can make international transactions more convenient and economically advantageous. Answering this requires services that function effectively in practice, along with clear rules for their use.
Opportunities for technology companies
A report by Binance Research illustrates the growing interconnection between digital assets and other financial instruments. In September, the trading volume of pre-IPO perpetual futures for OpenAI and Anthropic exceeded $1.3 billion. At the same time, the use of bStocks tokenized shares in decentralized finance protocols—including as collateral for loans—has increased. One potential avenue for Armenian programmers is the creation of technologies that serve such markets—including asset custody systems, analytical tools, and solutions for cybersecurity and transaction verification.
At the same time, it is important to distinguish between different financial instruments. A futures contract linked to the valuation of a private company does not equate to ownership of that company’s shares. Similarly, the rights held by the owner of a tokenized instrument depend on its legal structure. For businesses developing such solutions, clearly articulating these distinctions becomes a key component of product quality.
Why it is important for Armenian market participants to monitor the US Federal Reserve:
Even as local infrastructure develops, the prices of digital assets will continue to be influenced by global factors. Binance Research notes an intensifying negative correlation between Bitcoin and US Treasury yields; further increases in yields could exert downward pressure on BTC. The “golden cross” observed in September signals a shift in the medium-term price trend, though it does not in itself guarantee continued growth.
For users in Armenia, this means that assessing the outcome requires considering not only the asset’s price movements but also its value in drams, as well as the costs associated with buying, selling, and withdrawing funds. For companies, it implies that financial stability cannot be built on the expectation of perpetual price increases.
What Truly Matters for Armenia’s Economy
While the growth seen in September draws attention to digital assets, their long-term significance for Armenia will be determined by tangible outcomes—specifically, the creation of useful financial services, technological products, quality jobs, and reliable infrastructure.
In the coming months, alongside decisions by the US Federal Reserve and developments in international regulation, it is crucial for the Armenian market to prepare for the conclusion of the licensing transition period. Right now, local companies have the opportunity to assess the problems they can solve and determine how to transform the interest in digital assets into sustainable businesses.
Author: Roza Grigoryan
Photo by Jakub Żerdzicki on Unsplash
